BAD BEATS

In the vernacular of Poker, a "bad beat" is when you have a good hand, say a pair of 8's and the board (we are talking Texas Hold 'Em here) has five cards, a Jack, a five, an 8 and a pair of fours. You, then have a Full House, "8's full of fours." You bet confidently, another player evidently has a good hand, maybe holding a 6 and 7 to fill a straight, and matches you at every turn. When all is "called," you lay down your full house, only to find that the other player has a pair of Jacks in his hand.

That's a "bad beat."

Nebraska had the "game won" with seconds to go. The opponent was down to the last play over 40 yards from the end zone. The "Hail Mary" (or "Hail Joseph" since they were BYU?) was successful and Nebraska lost. That NEVER WORKS!! That is a bad beat. There is another story here that daughter-in-law Amy pointed out--the replacement quarterback for BYU, Tyler Mangum, had been on Mission for his church and hadn't either really worked out or been involved in football for two years until he returned home in June. Before he entered college, he competed with Jameis Winston at a football camp, was co-MVP, and Winston went on to be the Heisman winner and first draft pick.

Then, and this is amazing, he completed another Hail Mary the next week against Boise State. That just doesn't happen.

The Chiefs had the ball, 20 yard line, score tied after the Broncos came back. Seconds left. Everybody in the stands thought "overtime," and that would have been just one kneel-down. Instead, hand off to Charles, fumble, picked up by Denver and the guy runs it in for the score and the win. BAD BEAT.

When it happens to teams I am rooting for, the Huskers and the Chiefs, it is amazing, out of the ordinary, unbelievable, etc. But this happens all the time...although not, perhaps, in quite so dramatic a fashion.

As you all know, I have a particular fascination with baseball, and its lessons about life in general include bad beats, getting what you deserve, etc. When you have lived as long as I have, you begin to accept the old adage about life not being fair, some people are just no good and that there are going to be Bad Beats. Recovering from those is always the real test.

Hang in there, all of you.

FIORINA II

I have resisted just about long enough. Time to fire off another volley in the Carly saga.

The common opinion is that she won both debates, the "B" team debate earlier and this latest show. I guess we can call them "debates," but they are mostly TV theater. Not exactly the Lincoln/Douglas style or substance.

I have watched on YouTube some of her interviews and believe they demonstrate a high level of preparation and intelligence. She is way above the level of the "political class" she often references.

Take for instance the baiting by the likes of George Stephanopoulos (you would think he could at least get a last name that was easier to spell and quit posing as anything other than a trained monkey for the Democrats) and Katie Couric. They come off looking and sounding like lightweights.

There are two interviews that I would highly recommend for anyone wanting to learn more about candidate Carly Fiorina, both with a "friendly" interviewer, Hugh Hewitt. First, hear her talk about foreign policy in contrast to the same interviewer asking similar questions of Trump:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAldcxPlPNw

Then an interview with the same guy a month ago, 20 minutes long, but worth it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mefx-b2xcvo

Little things to know and tell--her father was a judge on the US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, and she praises her father, a former law professor and conservative jurist, for his courage in resisting the tendency of the Ninth Circuit to "make law" rather than interpret what the law actually is. That seems to be the fundamental difference between conservative and liberal when considering the courts, and in the last few years, the Supremes have drifted far afield.

She aspired as a young person to be a concert pianist. She worked as a Kelly Girl temp. She is a cancer survivor and her step-daughter died early due to drugs. She has made mistakes, but then most everyone who has actually led a life of accomplishment has made mistakes.

One of her likely opponents, Joe Biden, is no match. The book by former Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates is respectful and gracious to both his presidential bosses, George W. Bush and Barack Obama. But his only comment on Biden is that he was "consistently wrong on every major foreign policy matter for 20 years." Biden was singled out for his lack of ability in a book that delicately avoided gossip and criticism typically used to sell books.

I have wondered if she can win. Don't know the answer to that one. But she would make a good President, a terrific leader. Kinda reminds you of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan.

POLITICS

I remember watching both nominating conventions on black and white TV in 1956 (I had just turned 11 years old and it is a testament, perhaps, to the paucity of good TV back then). I thought it was fascinating, and we didn't even get to see the "smoke-filled rooms." Noisy, raucous, confusing and in the end, from the Cow Palace in San Francisco, Eisenhower/Nixon for the Republicans, and from Chicago, Stevenson/Kefauver for the Democrats.

Both of the outcomes were pretty predictable. Back then, the Democrats were intent on putting forward their champion who embodied principles held dear by the Party, regardless of his appeal to the electorate. Wow, they have surely gotten over that!! The Republicans would have had to display the kind of death wish we saw with the McCain/Palin ticket. But they rode a strong horse and didn't get off. "I Like Ike."

Here's the kicker--those conventions were the beginning and end of the presidential nomination cycle and they were held in August of 1956, about 75 days before the election. We are now being pounded over the head with politics and have been a year and one-half before the election. At this point, we still have over 14 months to go. Getting kinda long.

Last debate: Jeb Bush just doesn't have it. He is dull and not made for TV. Trump is made for TV, but empty of anything substantive. One would hope that Carly would coach whoever gets the nomination on how to handle the media, but in my mind, the potential nominee (with both Washington and gubernatorial experience) is Kasich. The ticket will be, my prediction, Kasich/Rubio.

Now, on the Democratic side. The public seems pretty unlikely to hire a continuance of the Obama days. Clinton's stock has plummeted, not helped by her admission that she has "thought about" putting Bill on the ticket with her. Ah, yes. Bernie Sanders. Going to turn the US into a socialist state, like Sweden or something. The good folks of North Dakota tried that in the first half of the twentieth century, and despite their homogeneous demographic makeup, their Scandinavian heritage, they just couldn't make the socialist/communist deal work. Not in America.

The Dems need to get busy with a real candidate, and soon.

Meanwhile, President Obama has cautioned the candidates that bad-mouthing the United States (like he did in both elections) is not a good thing to do. Gee, it got him elected...twice.

Meanwhile, the business of governance takes a back seat to this interminable made-for-TV reality show.

I'M CONVINCED

The world is loaded in the handbasket and on its way. Why am I convinced? It isn’t just the Chinese securities markets collapsing at a rate not seen since the height of the Great Recession/Financial Crisis in 2007, and it isn’t the statement by Everett D. Mitchell, the Director of Community Relations at the University of Wisconsin-Madison--also reported to be an attorney, pastor, and community leader--who said it is ok to steal from Wal Mart and Target because they have insurance.

Nope, I became convinced when it was disclosed that TEXAS, FLORIDA AND NEBRASKA were not listed in the AP Top 25, pre-season. None of them! First time since that poll was created in 1950 that the Top 25 didn’t include at least one of those teams.

Pretty convincing evidence of something BIG about to happen. Hide the wimmen n chillen. Oh, and have a nice day.

FIORINA I

Calling this "I" because my guess is that I will be saying more about her over the next year and a half or so.

This is the first I have seen of her description of her tenure at HP. Most "journalists" strip mine the parts that fit their agenda that day, but here is what she has to say, including something about the size of the government:

(CNSNews.com) - "We have never succeeded in shrinking the size of government," Republican Carly Fiorina told "Fox News Sunday." She said she would do it.

"We have a bunch of baby boomers who are going to retire out of the federal government over the next five to six years. I will not replace a single one," she promised. 

"And yes, we need to actually get about the business of reducing the size, the power, the cost, complexity and corruption of this federal government."

Host Chris Wallace played a video clip of Democratic National Committee Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) criticizing Fiorina for nearly driving Hewlett-Packard, a Fortune 500 company, "into the ground." Schultz noted that Fiorina "fired 30,000 people when she was CEO."

"You know, if you end up as Republican nominee, the Democrats are going to put that in every ad -- she fired 30,000 people," host Chris Wallace told Fiorina. "It's exactly the kind of thing, Ms. Fiorina, that sunk Mitt Romney."

Fiorina said she's "flattered" that the head of the DNC would come after me because it must mean she's "gaining traction.”

"But here's the facts: I led Hewlett-Packard through a very difficult time, the dotcom bust post-9/11, the worst technology recession in 25 years. I would remind Debbie Wasserman Schultz that it has taken the NASDAQ 15 years to recover.

Sometimes in tough times, tough calls are necessary. However, we also took a company from $44 billion to almost $90 billion. We quadrupled its growth rate, quadrupled its cash flow, tripled its innovation to 11 patents a day, and went from lagging behind to leading in every product category in every market segment.

And yes, I was fired at the end of that, in a boardroom, which I've been very open about. And I was fired because when you challenge the status quo, which is what leadership is about, you make enemies.

Steve Jobs was fired. Oprah Winfrey was fired. Walt Disney was fired. Mike Bloomberg was fired. I feel like I'm in good company. And we need somebody to challenge status quo of Washington, D.C. and get something done."

Wallace predicted that Democrats will find "that poor, unfortunate person" who was fired, and suffered, because of Fiorina's management.

She said there's nothing harder for a chief executive to do than to tell an employee, "we don't have a job for you."

"It's also true that the vast majority of Americans know that in tough times sometimes tough decisions have to be made. And what they're frustrated by is the federal government never makes a tough decision."

 

We were there when the doc.com bust happened, living and working in Silicon Valley. Our experience was worse than HP, by far. But have you noticed? People tend to judge the actions of people in the past according to the mores of today, ignoring the landscape.

BASEBALL IN AUGUST

Truly, I will pledge to keep the baseball comments to a minimum until October when I hope the Royals will be playing extra games. But this week is just too tempting.

First, who woulda thunk that the Royals would be 12 games ahead in their division with the second best record in baseball behind their fellow Missourians, the Cardinals? But in a game that is fascinated with statistics, this one amazes me, and if any of my statistician readers want to tell me what the heck this about, let's hear it:

Tuesday, August 11 was the first time in over 100 years (since 1914) that all home teams won in a full schedule. Yes, 15 home teams, 15 home teams came out the winners. Back in 1914, there were only 24 teams, so it was 12 home wins, but that was never tied and after expansion, it didn't happen either.

Well over 200,000 games have been played in the last 100 years at the major league level, and you would think that the law of random events or bell-shaped curves or whatever would have taken care of this--after all, there are over 2,400 games each year and...well, it just seems odd.

But, then, the Royals ahead like this is a bit odd, too.

TESLA AND TESLA REDUX

TESLA REDUX

The post below was written 11 months ago. I don't think it was ever posted, which is no surprise as I write a lot of stuff that never sees the light of day...fortunately!! But the date was September 4, 2014 and the observations were made below. Just wanted to update.

 

The stock was at $290 and the sky was the limit. By April, the stock dropped to $180; yesterday it was $270 and this morning it is opening in the $240 range, or down 10% plus. That’s volatility.

The previous article pointed out the small production and it is still a problem as 2015 was the year that they would achieve a pace of 100,000 units per year. Well, folks, it ain’t gonna happen—they changed “guidance” by -15% and still think 100,000 is going to happen…next year.

Meanwhile, the company loses $16,000 per car, up from a loss of $11,000 per car last December. The $2.3 billion raised in the market last year is essentially gone, burned up.

Are we starting to see a trend here? It is still valued at $34 billion (which is less than Apple, valued at $650 billion) but I can’t reconcile that with the current GM value of $50 billion.

Is anybody else thinking tulip bulbs? Google “tulip bulb craze.”

Soooo, the logical thing to do is short the stock, right? Not so fast, there, Baba Looey. It is already close to being “fully shorted” meaning a lot of short interest which is also dedicated buying interest since the shorts have to be covered eventually. The bigger influence, in my mind, is the power of Wall Street. Don’t discount the ability of the brokers who are going to pick up hundreds of millions when they place the $2 billion or $3 billion in the next financing round.

Let us just sit back and keep track and determine if the markets are, indeed, efficient.

TESLA

I have not been an electric car fan, principally because I think it requires too much government support to make them even marginally competitive in the marketplace. Now, Tesla is getting about $3 billion or more in tax breaks to put a factory in Nevada.

The second reason I don't think electric cars should have a place on the planet involves the ecological damage created by the batteries. The awful ecological disaster in Canada where the raw material is mined has been used by NASA because it resembles a moonscape. The factories where the lithium is processed in China are polluters on a cosmic scale.

But...since the cars run part of the time on batteries (Tesla's are all electric, not hybrid as I understand it), they are "green." Now, the power plants that supply the electricity to power the batteries are deemed to be enemies of the environment by the politicians, but that doesn't appear to matter.

Now, get this:

Excitement over Tesla’s future has caused Wall Street to give this momentum stock a $35 billion market capitalization, versus General Motors’ $55 billion. Tesla sold 39,149 cars through June 30, while GM sold north of 9.7 million vehicles last year alone. Tesla has posted net losses of $581.93 million from January 2012 through June 2014, while GM has posted net income of $13.84 billion over the same period...

Not in this article, but in another it was noted that Mountain View, California saw a lot of Tesla purchases. I guess you can afford one when your house is worth $1 million, $773 per square foot.