DAVID EINHORN

DAVID EINHORN

The billionaire had a bad year, down 34% in 2018.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/hedge-fund-all-star-david-einhorn-posts-his-worst-year-ever-losing-34percent-in-2018/ar-BBRI1l8?ocid=spartandhp

He hasn’t done well in the last several years, as it turns out, and the article doesn’t delve into the “asymmetry of numbers” issue that becomes very important when you have large losses. An example—when you lose 34%, you have to make 50% to get back to even.

One of the measures of a good money manager is how they perform in down markets as that performance defines the long term.

Note that Einhorn recently became a critic of Tesla, “…comparing the electric car maker to his famous call on Lehman Brothers.” Must have been reading my blog from a few years ago?

A/N: I was first disgusted with the Tesla phenomenon (aka, begging at the government trough) in 2013 or 2014, and first wrote about it here in 2017. Then, the stock was in the upper $300’s and market cap an astounding $60 billion. Today, it is down 8% as they missed their delivery targets, and market cap is about $57 billion.

If you go back and read old blog posts on the subject, it seems that Elon Musk has received $176 billion in subsidies for the wind power business. Couple that with the electric car fraud, and we may be comparing him to some of the most prominent and damaging shysters in the history of the US.

David Einhorn was heralded as a genius. That star has been tarnished. I’m predicting the same for Musk.

IMMIGRATION

My friend from college, James Angus, is retired from service with the Justice Department. He writes well, and this is something that I think he wrote especially well:

NATURALIZATION CEREMONY

When I recite the pledge of allegiance I do it barely above a whisper because I find comfort in hearing the person next to me, as well as inspiration from the choral voice of all declarers. And so it was on December 6 as I stood in a packed auditorium at the University of Delaware led by Federal District Court Judge Maryellen Noreika. Joining me were two hundred and twenty new citizens of the United States, from fifty six countries and double that number of family and well-wishers. As each country of origin was announced alphabetically, their citizens stood in recognition one last time before renouncing and abjuring all allegiance and fidelity to any foreign prince, potentate, state or sovereignty. It merits mention that each also swore to support and defend the Constitution and laws of the United States against all enemies, bear arms on behalf of the United States, perform non-combatant service in the Armed Forces of the United States and perform work of national importance under civil direction when required by law. This strikes a familiar note for those of us who were eligible for being drafted into the Armed Services once upon a time.

The League of Women Voters was in prominent attendance, eager to register new citizens for eligibility to participate in American democracy. I inwardly smiled at the misguided opinions of “media talking heads” that insult us with every newscast of how these new citizens I walked among were Democrats all. Indeed not! Most wore the cloth of working folks, many with hands to prove it. All had followed a process, albeit a long, grueling and expensive one that had taken years and many interactions with the Department of Homeland Security to complete. But here they were, at last, with spouses and children, mortgages and debt, medical histories, jobs, cars and other assets and, of course, tax liabilities: the whole kit and caboodle of challenges to daily living in America. As Senators Coons and Carper and Representative Rochester know well, some of these people will be asking for their help via the aortic vein of reelection: constituent services

.

Which brings me to my immigration problem. I hope you share my shame at living in a country where one party exploits a child’s death while in the custody of Customs and Border Protection and another party exploits a citizen’s death at the hands of a felon who has entered the country without inspection. Death is a personal tragedy and it demands the decency of private healing. In contrast, advertisers thrill in death and the lucre of public visibility.

There is no one solution to those seeking entry into the United States, whether by an illegal crossing or as a tourist with no intention of leaving. Give Trump money for his wall. Give Schumer and Pelosi as many border patrol agents and hi-tech security as they want. To say “that does not solve the problem” does not solve the problem. Give each what they want not because they will work or be effective but simply because they will allow us to move to a nobler plateau of civic debate from which we can get about the business of doing what America does best: solve the problem. 

And from what I witnessed on December 6, with literally 700 citizens and non-citizens alike rising in unison to pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of America, making the naturalization process more expedient and public could at no cost bend America’s spirit to bipartisanship for this singular issue.

Coco Chanel

Coco Chanel said:

"I don't care what you think of me. I don't think of you at all."

I needed to ponder on that one for a while. Wait for me.

THE WINTER FORTRESS

THE WINTER FORTRESS, Neal Bascomb

When I finish a good book, there is a period of euphoria, of revelation and heightened understanding. This was a good book. About the obstruction/destruction and prevention of the heavy water program at Norsk Hydro, Vemork, Norway, that, had it not been successful could have led to the development of the atomic bomb by the Nazis.

I remember watching the movie a long time ago. It was not very good, and in fact it was just not truthful. The story of the Norwegian heroes is complex and, therefore, regrettably, not fit for Hollywood. The sacrifices and deaths of the heroes is the stuff of ballads and legends, but they were ordinary men tasked to perform extraordinary duties.

Son, Matt, has projected the characteristics upon modern inhabitants of Northern Minnesota and North Dakota, and I agree. These are, today, stoical people who perform at a high level without fanfare. Who face a harsh climate without hesitation. Plus the “slings and arrows” of any life that has, as its inevitable conclusion, death.

Back to the story: Norsk Hydro was in the business of producing electricity, and byproducts that were essential to Norwegian agriculture (fertilizer) and industry. Why the industrialists at the company determined that the production of “heavy water” (more later) was a good thing to do is never really explained, but at that time in the world of science and industry, there was an overlap.

An example:  In the 1984 book, “Three Degrees above Zero” the author, Jeremy Bernstein, describes the activities at Bell Labs. When I read it many years ago, the thought struck me that this could never happen in today’s world. That was in the 1990’s, and it is true today—there could never be significant money spent on “pure research.” We all know the money spent on frivolous research (i.e. the sex life of a Central American fruit fly) but get this—a few of the guys sitting around just thinking (this was the 1920’s) decided that they should travel from their cushy little spot in New Jersey with Bell Labs and go to Columbia University to find about this new theory, quantum mechanics, and off they went. That bunch ended up inventing the transistor.

I maintain that there is no place on earth where this kind of pure research could be tolerated today.

Back to the Norwegians. The arrogance of the Germans was immense, and it was not taken kindly by the descendants of the Vikings. Even today, a “Quisling” is a synonym for “traitor” and the person for whom this is named, Vidkun Quisling who was the Nazi sympathizer AND head of the puppet Norwegian government.

The stage is set. It is 1941, Norway has been overrun by the Nazis, and the only plant in the world that is effective in producing heavy water is located in Norway.

Heavy water is an isotope that has special characteristics in the absorption and control of nuclear fission. It is essential in the development of (at that time) the atomic bomb. Why did that company, in a remote place (Norway) decide that they should produce deuterium oxide (heavy water) when there was at that time no industrial use for it? Basically, I guess, because they could?

The book describes the immense personal effort expended to prevent the production of heavy water for the Nazi program that would have produced an atomic bomb. After all, they had the scientists to do it, except they either killed them or sent them elsewhere since they were Jews.

Many years ago, my then brother-in-law, Rick, knew that I was unable to quit reading a book. When presented with a book that was worthwhile, I would continue to slog through, read away, until done. So for Christmas (probably 1991?) he drew my name and presented me with the book, The Making of the Atomic Bomb. It seemed like it was ten thousand pages, but actually more like a thousand. There were so many parts that were beyond my comprehension. But I retained some things:

·         The brains that invented the bomb were Jews

·         Oddly, a lot of them were born in a small part of Hungary

·         General Groves was impossible, but effective

·         Again, this could never happen today

One of the paragraphs of the book begins, “It was December 23…[1942]” and I was reading it on December 23, 2018. Seventy-six years later, to the day. Amazing the changes that have happened in that time, close to the span of my life.

The scourge that caused these patriots to endure hardships, to have the weight of innocent lives on their conscience, has passed. It still exists in many parts of the world, but we are thankfully insulated from knowing about the atrocities in Africa and the Mid East. Simply hiding out in the blizzards that seemed to be a weekly occurrence on the Vidda (Hardangervidda, the inhospitable plateau that is near the Vemork hydro plant) was enough of a challenge, then planning, executing and evading the Germans was a bonus.

Recommend for all. Good read. If not for this and many others, we would be speaking German and Japanese and have an entirely different outlook.

EVERY PARENT

Every parent has been told a story that is factual...sort of. Most of us learn that you wait to judge until you have assessed the situation, especially if you can hear the other side.

We often find that the child has a memory that is firmly planted, but some of the facts just aren't right. Again, most of us (the exceptions are the parents who attack teachers) avoid the "rush to judgment."

In my opinion, there are three principal stories that could be completely true in the Dr. Ford-Judge Kavanaugh saga:

1.    Dr. Ford's account is completely factual, Judge Kavanaugh's account is completely false.

2.    Dr. Ford was groped and terribly frightened, but it was not Kavanaugh.

3.    Dr. Ford's memory of the ordeal was flawed due to the passage of time, trauma and alcohol.

I certainly don't know the answer, but I refuse to crucify a man who has led an honorable life according to all accounts (other than hers) based on a single point of reference. Her "witnesses" didn't help her at all.

I'll bet husbands and wives, parents and daughters all across this land have had some interesting discussions about this. Personal stuff. While the D. C. area high school culture of the 1980's was apparently charged with underage drinking and suspect behavior, I'm going to bet that there has been a lot of discussion about similar happenings around the country.

Add money and privilege, like in the D.C. area...

Judge Kavanaugh has not been confirmed, but if he is, don't you think he may have a bit different view of the cases sponsored by Democrats from now on? Remember, the Dems brought this whole thing on when they started the "nuclear option."

INTERNATIONAL ONE HIT WONDER DAY

Ever get a song stuck in your head? Ever waste time on the internet? Got one for ya—today is “International One Hit Wonder Day.” You’ll notice it is not just “regional.”

What’s your favorite? The one that always gets stuck in my head is “The Night the Lights Went out in Georgia.” Vicki Lawrence. Carol Burnett’s sidekick. Who knew?

Here are some more:

“Afternoon Delight.”

“Mickey” This was a drill team song in about 1986 and drove everybody nuts

“In the Summertime.” Should get a gold star for high weirdness of the band’s name—Mungo Jerry—and for a prominent role played by blowing into a jug

Who can forget “Harper Valley PTA,” “Seasons in the Sun,” “Play that Funky Music (White Boy),” or “Girl from Ipanema.” In the bossa nova style.

“Classical Gas.” A guitar instrumental. This is not happening in today’s environment.

“Dominique.” In French, religious, by a Belgian nun. Tragically, she later left the convent and committed suicide with her partner.

“In-A-Gadda-Da-Vida.” Whittled down from the original 45 minutes on the album to 3 minutes for radio.

“Judy in Disguise (with Glasses).” When you’re from Louisiana, it might be hard to understand that kind of English.

They all have in common that these songs were the only time these artists hit the Top 100 charts. You will also notice that they mostly came from that special period of pop music, early 1960’s through the Disco era.

Not much from the highly produced stuff now that doesn’t have much in common with “music.” So fortunate to have grown up in a time that had these outliers and also the great bands and musicians.

Son Matt is a fan of the author Malcolm Gladwell who pointed out that The Beatles were not amateurs who just appeared on the scene, but paid their dues in Germany by performing hours and hours. Eventually attaining the 10,000 hours that Gladwell often used to assess whether a person actually knows what they are doing.

I don't get it

How can a business that pays producer in Asia 20 cents per hour turn around and pay that pretend-quarterback person tons of dollars to protest inequality?

Lots of disconnects?