Saturday, April 11, 2020

“THE LAUNDROMAT”




What a mess. Watched “The Laundromat” starring Meryl Streep basically, again, playing herself. She doesn’t have much range, does she? Upon the recommendation of a friend. Turns out, it is another tale told by the uninformed to arouse the passions of the “believers.”

In some ways, like “Food Inc” where the viewers who wanted to believe came away with a weird, skewed story of how the beef we get in the supermarket is the product of cruelty from beginning to end of their lives. That they “never get to feel grass under their feet.” Tell that to the ranchers!

Back to “The Mess” as it should have been named. The attempt to tell the story of money from the beginning of time was lame and then trying to drag us to an understanding of modern era money-laundering through sophisticated schemes involving off-shore shell corporations was a total failure. Really, people, you need to understand your subject in order to tell a story, and it is obvious these people don’t know much.

The conclusion, a script after the welcome conclusion of this travesty showed the real conclusion. Good stories don’t need to tell you what they told you, do they? Here is the gist of that post-script: “There are a lot of corporations in the US that pay no income taxes.” Yeah. So what? You have to explain those concepts because…well, the movie missed the mark on so many levels, but for sure it didn’t come close to explaining all that.

Delaware and its favorable corporation laws came under attack, as did Wyoming. I’ll leave Delaware alone, it can fend for itself, but WYOMING?? Yes, Wyoming is the state that invented the concept of the Limited Liability Company (LLC) that is used almost exclusively for small business formations these days all over the US. Nearly all my clients have LLCs. Why? Because they generally protect the individual owner from liability. The term “generally” is used because fraud and other wrong-doing is not protected. They also pay no tax. Why? Because the taxable income is then reported directly to the owner(s). At the end of the day, taxes due are paid.

There is a theory that ALL corporate income tax should be eliminated. That all the income generated by the corporation should be channeled through to the owners, the stockholders, just like the LLC. Currently, there is a double taxation—the corporation pays taxes on income and then the owner pays taxes on the relatively smaller amount delivered to them as dividends. This theory is opposed by the large accounting firms that siphon billions off by devising complicated schemes to avoid the first tax. The complex IRS tax code is a contract for eternal employment for accountants.

None of this is covered in the movie. Instead, it wanders around to a story about Chinese bribery and a vignette about a dysfunctional family of what appears to be an exiled African dictator who has billions of dollars, probably diverted from the largesse of US corporations and the US government trying to help his people. What? How does this further the story? Not that the scenario isn’t true, but where did it come from and where is it going?

Try to avoid these kinds of Hollywood propaganda. They do nothing to further your understanding, but waste a bunch of your time. Maybe destroy a brain cell or two along the way.

Monday, March 16, 2020

MARKET CRASH MARCH 2020


Mid-day Monday, March 16, 2020, the level of the stock market measured by the S&P 500 is back to last Thursday, down about a third in 20 days. Erasing 11 years of gains.

Since its peak on February 19, 2020, the markets have declined $11.5 trillion to about $23.8 trillion as measured by the Russell 3000 index which accounts for 98% of the value of US stocks.

That elimination of a third of the value of the market is startling:
·         It accounts for all of the gain since Donald Trump was elected president in 2016.
·         In order to get back from a 33% drop to the high of mid-February, the value will have to increase by 50%.
·        It is easy to blame the drop on the coronavirus. In my opinion, that is not the case, but if it were, the $11.5 trillion caused by 61 deaths (in the US) would mean that each death caused a loss of $188 billion. EACH! A bit out-sized, don't ya think?
o   The bull market was 11 years old, a record
o   It was time for a major correction
o   Russia and Saudi Arabia got into a tiff and caused oil prices to drop by nearly 50% (now that’s important!!)

China is no longer experiencing rapid spread of the disease. Many have discussed how China’s authoritarianism delayed disclosure and increased the severity of the problem, as was the case in Iran. There is some evidence that efforts in the US will contain the disease sooner than later, but the economic damage will take a long time to solve.

While we are at the process of finding the bright side of a disease and the upside of a huge market downside, remember 1665-1667. That was when Isaac Newton was self-quarantined due to the bubonic plague that killed approximately one-third of the population of London.

According to an excellent article by Jeff Jacoby in the Boston Globe,


That period was the most intellectually productive of Newton’s life and maybe the most productive period ever in anyone’s life...ever.

For example, in that time Newton discovered and described the nature of light (that it is composed of various colors), the apple fell and inspired him to correctly describe the nature of gravity, and he invented calculus.

Saturday, February 29, 2020

ASTOUNDED


Two experiences happened today that absolutely astounded me:

1.         Saw the movie “Dream/Killer” that details the 10-year saga of a 19-year old in Columbia, Missouri who is wrongly convicted of murder. The corruption of the police and the prosecutor were just infuriating. His conviction was overturned after 10 years, but his life was truly ruined.

2.         Was investigating the primary in my precinct in Texas and discovered that one of the Democratic candidates for Congress is not a resident of our area, is in fact a resident of California, and he is running for Congress in California at the same time as here. His father is also running in California, as a Republican. How can this happen?

      UPDATE: Post primary election: "Ricky" the guy from California, won the Democratic party nod to represent the Party against the Republican in November. Wow, a carpet-bagger for sure.

     
 I



Wednesday, February 19, 2020

PARDONS


Big current news involves President Trump’s pardons. One, Michael Milken, has evidently rehabilitated and the story is inspiring. But he is still banned for life from the financial marketplace.

Some are going to be controversial, like the former police chief of New York who was convicted of taking bribes. Former Governor of Illinois, Rod Blagojevich had his sentence commuted, and when you look at his crime, trying to sell the Senate seat vacated by Obama, you wonder if that deserves the sentence of 14 years. He has served 8 years.

In the articles I read, no one mentions pardons by former Presidents. I stood in my front yard in Virginia Beach visiting with a neighbor about various subjects when the subject came up about Obama’s pardons. He pardoned One Thousand Nine Hundred Twenty-Seven (1,927) criminals and my neighbor saw the list. His comment to me: “Boy, there are some really bad guys on that list.”

My neighbor is an FBI agent and he noted that it is common practice to “plead down” to save money, time and effort when the prosecution doesn’t have enough hard evidence to convict on a more serious crime. You see this on TV all the time. The names on Obama’s list had been convicted on drug charges, typically, and were serving long sentences. That was, according to my FBI neighbor, because the murder, rape or similar charges just didn’t have enough hard evidence.

Did anybody see this in the news? Back then? Now?

Tuesday, February 4, 2020

TESLA, AGAIN AND AGAIN AND AGAIN



I know, you are tired of me talking about the company that makes what I think are fancy golf carts. But it is an interesting story.

Back story: I last wrote about TSLA April 2, 2018, and before that in 2014. The theme has been the same, it is grossly overpriced and just because Elon Musk is an expert at getting government subsidies, it is still not a good value.

WRONG! I may be right about the over value thing, but completely wrong about the way the stock would move. Today, 1:00 EST, February 4, 2020, the stock is up 16.6% to $909. Yesterday, it was up 19.9%. Since October it is up 200%+.

Market cap today is about $140 Billion. Compare that to General Motors, a measly $48 Billion.

As I’ve said before, the markets are not necessarily rational, especially when governed by emotion. I have brought up tulip bulbs before. Here’s another one: Amazon increased in value in after-market trading the other day by $100 Billion (yes, that much in after-hours trading) to top $1 Trillion in market cap. For perspective, United Parcel Service has a total market cap of $87 Billion.

There ya go. That’s what makes a horse race, I guess.

Monday, February 3, 2020

CHIEFS

Well, aren't we all glad that the Chiefs won? Honestly, the way San Francisco is going, it would have been too dangerous (or dirty) to hold a victory parade.

Someone will be complaining about the name, "Chiefs." It isn't as simple as they think.

From CNN (of all places to find a fact!): "It all started with, of all things, the Boy Scouts. The Tribe of Mic-O-Say is part of the Boy Scouts of America program in Missouri and was created by Harold Roe Bartle in 1925. ...Bartle went by the name of "Chief Lone Bear" in his Mic-O-Say organization..." although he was not Native American.

"Almost 40 years after the founding of Mic-O-Say, Bartle became the mayor of Kansas City...colloquially known as "Chief." Bartle helped convince Lamar Hunt... to bring the Dallas Texans to Kansas City."

There was a name competition and "Chiefs" won, apparently in connection with Bartle. I was unaware of this history, but one of the identifiable components of the Kansas City skyline is the building with the "hair curlers," Bartle Hall Convention Center.

Now you have it.






























Thursday, January 9, 2020

ANDREW JACKSON


After the Battle of New Orleans, upon return to his home at The Hermitage:

The sons of America have given a new proof how impossible it is to conquer freemen fighting in defense of all that is dear to them. Henceforward, we shall be respected by nations who, mistaking our character, had treated us with outrage. Years will continue to develop our inherent qualities, until, from being the youngest and the weakest, we shall become the most powerful nation in the universe.
                Nashville 1815

Some now serving in Congress should contemplate these words.