An analysis of the value of heretical thought by
one of the world's leading Physicists, Freeman Dyson at the Princeton Institute
for Advanced Study.
http://edge.org/conversation/heretical-thoughts-about-science-and-society
http://edge.org/conversation/heretical-thoughts-about-science-and-society
..."Here is another heretical thought. Instead of calculating
world-wide averages of biomass growth, we may prefer to look at the problem
locally. Consider a possible future, with China continuing to develop an
industrial economy based largely on the burning of coal, and the United States
deciding to absorb the resulting carbon dioxide by increasing the biomass in
our topsoil. The quantity of biomass that can be accumulated in living plants
and trees is limited, but there is no limit to the quantity that can be stored
in topsoil. To grow topsoil on a massive scale may or may not be practical,
depending on the economics of farming and forestry. It is at least a
possibility to be seriously considered, that China could become rich by burning
coal, while the United States could become environmentally virtuous by
accumulating topsoil, with transport of carbon from mine in China to soil in
America provided free of charge by the atmosphere, and the inventory of carbon
in the atmosphere remaining constant. We should take such possibilities into
account when we listen to predictions about climate change and fossil fuels. If
biotechnology takes over the planet in the next fifty years, as computer
technology has taken it over in the last fifty years, the rules of the climate
game will be radically changed.
When I listen to the public debates about climate change, I am impressed by the enormous gaps in our knowledge, the sparseness of our observations and the superficiality of our theories. Many of the basic processes of planetary ecology are poorly understood. They must be better understood before we can reach an accurate diagnosis of the present condition of our planet. When we are trying to take care of a planet, just as when we are taking care of a human patient, diseases must be diagnosed before they can be cured. We need to observe and measure what is going on in the biosphere, rather than relying on computer models."
No comments:
Post a Comment