DECLINING BIRTH RATES

I have been observing (ok, a lot of it looks like complaining) that when I stayed with my two granddaughters in South Dakota in May and my granddaughter in Denver in June, child care on a regular basis is exhausting. We keep the two and one-half year-old grandson in Va Beach on a regular basis, usually once a week. Yep, a lot of work.

The other observation I made, though, is the way bonding plays into the equation. Talk about a tough job you love! And before the trips, I wanted to talk to and see the little ones, but I didn’t have that yearning that was enhanced with bonding.

Preface all this with a comment I have heard many times, but it was repeated recently and goes something like this: “I don’t see how they do it. Having and caring for those kids is impossibly difficult.”

When I was first married and had children, I was 24 and far too young to know or even think about the challenges. We had no money, no support. It had to be harder on my wife, the mother, than it was on me, but I was working an average of 2 to 3 jobs just to have enough money to buy food. Many of you can endorse my statement that it is a huge challenge that is made even more difficult when you’re poor.

Summarizing the articles: Agreed upon: a birth rate of about 2.12 is necessary to replace the current population. The current US birthrate is in the 1.7 range and declining.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/13/upshot/american-fertility-is-falling-short-of-what-women-want.html

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/21/hat-looks-good-slug-birth-rates-us-falling-reasons-why-family-policies

NYT—the American fertility rate is declining, blame increased use of contraceptives and especially Long-acting contraceptives (LARCS) and millennials are not having sex as much. They used an excellent phrase for cell phones as one of the culprits—“get-out-of-human-interaction free devices.” Then concluded that the biggest drop in fertility was in the western states.

COMMENT:  Without some explanation, what does it matter what state has the most or least fertility? So, Mississippi is the only state to increase. Aren’t there some other factors at work rather than your time zone? How about race? How about income?

THE GUARDIAN (US Edition)—pretty simple conclusion: The reason fertility is declining and so far below replacement in the US is because the US is a terrible place and an even worse place to have and raise a child. OK. ?? Well, if that conclusion is true, why is the birth date declining similarly among the Swedes in Sweden, a paradise according to The Guardian? Back up on that statement—the birth rate is low for Swedes, but the immigrants and especially the immigrants have much higher birth rates. For that paper, though, don’t bother me with those kinds of facts—the US is a horrible place.

Now, wasn’t that helpful?

I’ll give you another scenario that is POWERFUL!! Say that you are a rational, highly-educated, single, 28-year-old woman with a good job. You are old enough and have enough experience to know (not just suspect, but KNOW) that having and raising a child is difficult work, risky and expensive. More kids? = More work. Hmmmm. “I think I’ll wait until Prince Charming drops around.” Completely true and completely rational thinking. But it is absent the love and bonding component. As it should be. You can’t love and bond with a Prince Charming who seems to love his horse too much or for children who are yet to be born.

My generation just went ahead and got married and blundered into parenthood. The apprehension of this generation is warranted, but it is also going to cause a huge change in the civilization going forward. The people who are educated and wealthy are going to dwindle and become less of a voting force, and the uneducated and jobless are going to run out of people to provide for them…and their larger than average number of children. Whoa, there are some words that can’t be published—not PC.

Interesting set of decades coming up.