Donald Trump
predicted to win Republican candidacy...in 2001
This is too
good to pass over. Bill James (think Money
Ball, but arguably the preeminent statistician in baseball) commented on
the statistical inevitability of Donald Trump or Warren Beatty getting the
nomination just as Rafael Palmeiro had won the Gold Glove at first base in
1999.
You see,
Palmeiro wasn't even the best first baseman on his own team! He was a
designated hitter. But the voting system is an unrestricted plurality, so even
if you get a small amount of votes, if the votes are spread out among a lot of
candidates, you don't need much to beat the next guy.
Just as The
Donald did.
But how
random that James (in 2001) would actually say "...someone like David Duke, Donald Trump, or Warren Beatty
would be elected President."
Nearly as miraculous as Posnanski's 2011 prediction that
the Royals would win the 2015 World Series.
http://sportsworld.nbcsports.com/donald-trump-bill-james-2001/
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