Wednesday, May 4, 2016
Baseball, Politics and Bill James predicts Trump for President 16 years ago
Donald Trump predicted to win Republican candidacy...in 2001
This is too good to pass over. Bill James (think Money Ball, but arguably the preeminent statistician in baseball) commented on the statistical inevitability of Donald Trump or Warren Beatty getting the nomination just as Rafael Palmeiro had won the Gold Glove at first base in 1999.
You see, Palmeiro wasn't even the best first baseman on his own team! He was a designated hitter. But the voting system is an unrestricted plurality, so even if you get a small amount of votes, if the votes are spread out among a lot of candidates, you don't need much to beat the next guy.
Just as The Donald did.
But how random that James (in 2001) would actually say "...someone like David Duke, Donald Trump, or Warren Beatty would be elected President."
Nearly as miraculous as Posnanski's 2011 prediction that the Royals would win the 2015 World Series.